On this episode, we sat down with two election experts from NCSL to discuss the Nov. 5 election. Ben Williams, NCSL’s associate director of Elections and Redistricting, broke down the race for 5,508 legislative seats on ballots in 44 states. Helen Brewer, who tracks statewide ballot measures for NCSL, discussed the large number of measures on ballots this year related to abortion, taxes and more.
On this episode, we sat down with two election experts from NCSL to discuss the state legislative races and statewide ballot measures in the Nov. 5 election.
Ben Williams, NCSL’s associate director of Elections and Redistricting, discussed the 5,508 legislative seats on ballots in 44 states, more than 78% of all legislative seats nationwide. He also explained how the outcomes could affect legislative control in the states, overall state control and veto-proof majorities in some states.
Helen Brewer with NCSL explained the range of topics covered by the more than 150 statewide ballot measures voters will decide. She discussed the large number of abortion-related measures and others uses such election administration, taxes, criminal justice and education.
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Ed: Hello and welcome to “Our American States,” a podcast from the National Conference of State Legislatures. I’m your host, Ed Smith.
BW: Only one state, Pennsylvania, has a split legislature where two different parties control the two chambers. This is tied for the lowest number of legislatures with split control going back to 1900 which is when NCSL’s records began.
Ed: That was Ben Williams from NCSL. Williams is NCSL’s Associate Director of Elections and Redistricting and he joined the podcast to discuss the 2024 legislative election landscape. I’m also joined by Helen Brewer from NCSL who is tracking this year’s statewide ballot measure.
This year there are 5,508 state legislative seats on ballots in 44 states, more than 78% of all legislative seats nationwide.There also are elections in the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, the Northern Marianas Islands and American Samoa where voters will elect 157 legislators.Williams explained the current balance of control between Democrats and Republicans, including legislative control and overall state control including the governor’s seat. He also explained how the election might affect where the legislature has a veto proof majority by one party. He also told me what would surprise him the most.
Brewer discussed the more than 150 statewide ballot measures this year. Topics include election administration, taxes, abortion, criminal justice and education.
Here is our discussion starting with Ben Williams.
Ben, welcome back to the podcast.
BW: Great to be back, Ed.
Ed: So, Ben, this is always one of my favorite podcasts talking with you about the upcoming election. But probably unlike most people talking about elections on podcasts lately and there’s a lot of that, we are focused on state legislatures.So, let’s start there and tell the listeners the current state of play, which legislatures are controlled by Republicans and which by Democrats.
BW: So, the topline, Ed, these details will be familiar to folks who have listened to our previous episodes. They are Republicans control a majority of state legislative chambers as they have since the 2010 Tea Party wave. The GOP holds a majority, 54% of the nation’s 7,386 legislative seats and it holds the majority of the nation’s legislative chambers and it holds the majority of the nation’s governorships. So, on every metric that we look at, Republicans have the edge.That’s been true since 2010 when Republicans rode the Tea Party waive to power after as you know years of Democratic dominance at the state legislative level. Specifically heading into this November’s elections, Republicans control 57 chambers; Democrats control 41. And Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is officially nonpartisan, but if we threw that in, it would be a Republican controlled chamber as well. I want to emphasize that that is control so who controls the levers of power. If you looked at our state partisan composition page, there are some states like Pennsylvania and Minnesota where legislative vacancies imply the Republicans have control in some or all of those states, but don’t be fooled.Democrats still control the levers of power in the Pennsylvania House and the Minnesota Senate. Perhaps the most important point, Ed, is only one state Pennsylvania has a split legislature where two different parties control the two chambers. So, in Pennsylvania, the House is controlled by Democrats; the Senate is controlled by Republicans. This is tied for the lowest number of legislatures with split control going back to 1900 which is when NCSL’s records began. Only twice in 2018 to 2020 and in 1914 were the number of splits as low as they currently are.
Ed: Well two interesting points there. One about the split legislatures and we could, and I think we have done, whole podcasts about what that means and partisanship and redistricting and self-selection and geography and that sort of thing. The other point, 14 years since the Tea Party, I’m actually surprised by that. It seems like a long time when you put it that way though it seems almost like yesterday when that all happened. Now another thing we like to talk about is unified state control where not only the legislature is controlled by one party which we should point out is the vast majority, but also the governor’s chair is held by the same party. Where do we stand on that?
TM: 04:42
BW: So, it’s no surprise that with the number of split legislatures at near record lows, the number of split states is also near record lows. So currently there are nine states Alaska, Arizona, Kansas, Kentucky, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Vermont and Wisconsin have split control. And I promise that’s the only time we are going to list out states on this entire podcast so don’t worry. In all but Pennsylvania’s case, the split is because the Governor is of one party and both chambers of the legislature are controlled by another party. Alaskans technically voted in enough Republicans to form majorities in the State House and Senate, but both chambers in Juneau are currently controlled by multiparty coalitions. So, on the Senate side, that coalition is majority Democratic so you can think of that as technically a split. That is just above the lowest number of splits in our tracking which occurred most recently in 1946 and 1952. So again, historic minimums are not far away.
Ed: So, you know swing states are another common topic these days, but I think that what we are going to talk about is a little bit different than what we talk about or see on the cable news and on news sites. Which states are you watching on election night to see if control in the legislature shifts?
BW: Well, we will be watching all states of course, but the ones that we will be watching extra close are ones that you will be familiar with. Arizona so both the House and the Senate. New Hampshire both the House and the Senate. Pennsylvania’s House and Senate and Wisconsin’s House and Senate.We will also watch Michigan and Minnesota’s House Chambers though not their Senates because apart from any special elections, those chambers aren’t up this year.
If we get to November and it’s apparent that there may be a red wave with Republicans winning by big margins nationally, we may want to take a close look at Delaware’s House and Senate, Maine’s House and Senate, Nevada’s House and Senate and Oregon’s House and Senate all of which have comfortable Democratic majorities, but could become interested in some outlier scenarios. Now if the inverse happens, there is a blue wave nationally, it’s possible Democrats could win outright majorities in the Alaska House and Senate rather than the coalitions that currently exist. And the Georgia House and Senate might be in play. But at this point less than a month from election day, I think those wave election scenarios are less likely absent a big October surprise so I’d be focusing on those core states Arizona, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Ed: Another thing I wanted to talk to you about is the significant trend lately is a number of states with veto-proof majorities also referred to as super majorities and the number of states that don’t have that situation but are pretty close. So where do things stand with these veto-proof majorities going into election day?
BW: NCSL didn’t track veto-proof majorities historically so I can’t say if these numbers are historic highs or not. But going into election day, Republicans have veto proof majorities in 19 states and Democrats have them in 9 so that’s 23.There are several states where the majority party is just short. For example, Colorado, the Democrats are only a couple of seats short. Same is true in Mississippi for Republicans. And there are several states where the veto proof majorities that do exist are quite narrow. So, for example, North Carolina’s Republicans have a bare majority.They can’t lose a single seat.And in Vermont, the Democrats have a very narrow majority in particular in the State House. Since veto proof majorities now exist in a majority of the nation’s legislatures, this is something that we will be tracking closely on November 5th and beyond.
Ed: Well, I’m sensing a trend here, Ben, in terms of where things are going in terms of splits in states and it seems remarkable.As you say, we don’t have historic data, but 28 states with veto-proof majorities does seem like a lot. So, I heard you mention before the number of states were split control—one chamber held by one party and one by the other—is at one a historic low. And could we be headed for no split chambers? Is that a possibility there?
BW: Certainly possible. I’m not sure that I would say it is probable because there is a decent chance we could see flips in states like Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire or Wisconsin where we could be creating some new splits. But all it would take to hit zero splits is for all else to stay the same and for Democrats to flip the PA Senate or Republicans to flip the PA House. That’s far from a zero-chance scenario. In fact, that has a decent chance of happening. If that does come to pass, we will certainly write about it in NCSL’s State Legislatures News so keep an eye out there for the latest stories and obviously keep an eye on this podcast feed, Ed.
Ed: The question I really want to ask you is what would surprise you the most if you woke up the day after the election and found out that this had happened in a legislative election?
BW: Oh gosh. The most surprising thing. Lots of things could surprise me Ed. I’m not you know some people say they are not surprised by anything anymore, but I am still surprised by some things. With so much uncertainty there, I think that the thing that would surprise me the most is if we saw double digit chamber flips. So that hasn’t happened since the Tea Party wave of 2010 and since then polarization has only increased which makes big swings less likely. I’d expect somewhere around three to six chambers to flip from one party to another. And also, it’s very likely that all of those flips are going to go the same way. We haven’t seen a multidirectional flip where both parties are flipping chambers in a single election in over 20 years so I guess it’s a two-parter. First, there are not going to be more than 10 splits and second, it’s likely that only one party is going to be doing any flipping.
Ed: Well as you know, I love this stuff so I’m really looking forward to talking with you on November 6 and we will see what happens.Thanks a lot Ben.
BW: Thanks so much Ed.
Ed: I’ll be right back after this short break with Helen Brewer from NCSL.
TM: 10:54
Helen, welcome to the podcast.
HB: Thaks so much for having me.
Ed: Let’s start with the big picture on statewide ballot measures. How many ballot measures will voters be seeing?
HB: Sure. In this year’s general elections, voters will be seeing just over 150 ballot measures and I will note that that number does include a handful of measures in Louisiana’s December General Elections. They have some generals then as well. So, looking at November and December, it’s about 153 ballot measures and this includes 41 states, Washington, DC, Puerto Rico and the American Samoa. Out of this total number of just over 150 ballot measures, there are about 90 legislative referrals which are changes to state statute or constitution that the legislature sends out for voter approval and there are about 60 or almost 60 citizen initiatives.
For 2024 overall, we have seen just over 160 ballot measures. There was a small handful that was voted on at special elections and primary elections earlier this year.
Ed: Wow. That sounds like a lot of ballot measures. Is there a single state that leads the pack with the most ballot measures?
HB: Yes. This year Colorado is holding down that top spot with the most ballot measures. Here in Colorado where NCSL is headquartered and where I am, we have 14 measures on the ballot this year. Colorado is often a pretty heavy ballot measured state and this year is no exception to that.
Ed: Well, I know I just got my ballot the other day in the mail and it’s an awful lot. I know from talking with you earlier that after a little bit of a dip in 22 in 2020 that this year’s total is coming back toward a high point similar to what we saw in 2018 and 2016. Why are we seeing so many ballot measures this year do you think?
HB: I don’t know if I’ll be able to point to one single reason for this year’s high number of ballot measures, but what I can say is that presidential years of course are always busy elections.There’s a lot of attention on the election. It’s possible that folks who are hoping to get a ballot measure passed are banking on voters paying more attention to the entire ballot because of the attention on the presidential election and indeed if we look back at 2016 and 2012, our ballot measure numbers this year are similar to those two presidential elections.2020 did take a bit of a dip as you mentioned. Again, I don’t know that there is one reason for that, but of course 2020 was anomalous in many ways when it came to the election because of the timing of the election pretty early on in the pandemic so maybe that drove down ballot measure numbers. I don’t know.But the last thing I’ll say for what might also be feeding this year’s high number of ballot numbers is that there are some pretty high-profile issues that are on both legislatures and voter’s minds across the country that are contributing to this year’s high numbers.I know we are going to get into this more soon, but these include things like abortion related ballot measures and measures related to various election topics.
Ed: Overall, what are the hot topics this year in addition to abortion?
TM: 15:34
HB: There are some hot topics that are perennial trends that we are still seeing this year and then there are some that are pretty new new trends ballooning trends this year in 2024. So as is always the case, the largest number of ballot measures have to do with taxes and bond issues. That is the case year after year and it’s true again this year. There are also continuing though somewhat dwindling trends without measures related to drug policy and then as I mentioned some pretty new trends this year are ballot measures related to abortion and then a variety of election topics.
So, within those hot topics, there are a couple of hot topics within those topics that might be worth pointing out. When we are looking at our tax related ballot measures, a lot of them allocate or reallocate revenue to education programs in the states. That’s pretty common and it’s common this year as well. And then perhaps a little bit more notable or what I’ve thought has been interesting to see has been a good handful of tax-related ballot measures that would allocate revenue and funding to environmental programs or to a recreational maintenance program. There is a handful of those this year and I think that has been interesting to see.
Then as I mentioned when it comes to drug policy-related ballot measures, the amount of those has dwindled down since like the 2010s or so or slightly before when we saw a lot of states legalizing medical uses of marijuana for example through ballot measures, but there are still a few states that have those ballot measures coming up this year. Massachusetts has a ballot measure that will be seeking to utilize some uses of some psychedelic substances. I think this is worth pointing out because Colorado was, I believe the first state to do that or one of the first states to do that via ballot measure within the last couple of years so it will be interesting to see if this type of ballot measure continues. And then as I mentioned again, the abortion-related and election-related ballot measures are new trends this year. On that, there are 10 states that have abortion-related ballot measures.Most of them seeking to establish a right to abortion in the state constitution. Nebraska is unique within that collection of 10 states. It has two different abortion related measures on the ballot and each one of those would deal with the states ability to regulate abortion a little bit differently.
The trend with the abortion related ballot measures is definitely we have seen this escalate since the Dobbs case in 2022 when the United States Supreme Court overturned Rowe v Wade. We’ve seen like I said a sharp increase in the number of abortion-related ballot measures since then. And every abortion-related ballot measure that has appeared on the ballet since the Dobbs case has been decided in favor of pro-abortion advocates so we will see if that trend continues or changes this November.
And then lastly the last new trend this year is election-related ballot measures especially those related to primaries and rank choice voting, which I know we are going to talk about more and we are seeing those this year cropping up in the Western states or in a lot of Western states in particular.
Ed: Thinking of elections, there is actually a handful of states that have ballot measures that have passed would prohibit non-citizens from voting. And my understanding is non-citizens already are prohibited from voting in federal elections. So, what would the effect of these measures be if they passed.
TM: 19:04
HB: Yes, you are correct about that. It is already the case that only citizens are allowed to vote in elections that is true in every state. It is unlawful for non-citizens to vote in state and federal elections. There are eight states this year that have these ballot measures that require citizenship to vote or that clarify that non-citizens cannot vote. There is a very small handful of jurisdictions around the country like a few school districts, water districts. I think it’s literally about 10 to 12 jurisdictions in the entire country where non-citizens can vote in a couple of those local elections.But aside from that, as you mentioned and as I said, it is the case already that only citizens can vote. So, what these amendments tend to do most state constitutions already say something like all citizens over the age of 18 can vote in elections. What these ballot measures do is seek to make a small change to that constitutional language to say only citizens over 18 can vote. So, when we are looking at what is changing in the law, it’s a very minor wording change. What the effect of that change is is suppose that if any states where these ballot measures pass wanted to have jurisdictions like those smaller ones that I mentioned earlier where non-citizens could vote, I would assume that the passage of these amendments would prevent that change from being an option.But again, that’s very rare, very uncommon as it is already. So, we really are looking at small changes to state constitutional language with this focus on clarifying that non-citizens cannot vote which is already the case in all 50 states.
Ed: You mentioned rank choice voting earlier.There are also changes to how primaries are handled. Can you talk about those. Are they similar? Are they different?
HB: These ballot measures that are seeking to change primary elections and rank choice voting practices are all over the map.They are not similar to one another.I like to say that there is really an approach in this bucket of ballot measures for everybody. For a few examples just to illustrate that, Missouri has a ballot measure that is seeking to prohibit rank choice voting. So does Alaska. Alaska’s measure there is interesting because the state currently uses rank choice voting so this ballot measure would be seeking to put an end to that practice. Then on the other hand, we have five states and Washington, D.C., with measures seeking to implement rank choice voting.
Turning to primary elections, Alaska again currently uses top-four primaries, which means that the top four vote getters in the primary regardless of political party advance to the general election.Alaska has a ballot measure seeking to change that back to a partisan primary which you might think of us a more conventional primary what we are used to seeing: The two candidates one from each of the two major parties advancing to the general election.
On the primaries front, Arizona has competing ballot measures. One that would require partisan primaries. Again, the traditional type of primary that we are used to seeing.And another measure that if it passed would require an all-comers primary. This is similar to a top four or top five. It just doesn’t specify what the number has to be. If this ballot measure passes, it will require Arizona to use anything between a top-two or a top-five primary so we call that all comers because it means that the candidates with the most votes regardless of party will advance to the general.
And the last thing on this primary election note in addition to those Arizona measures I just described, there are four states with measures that, if passed, would require either top-four or top-five primaries. So, a huge variation in all the states where we are seeing these measures.
Ed: Yeah, very interesting. I think the rank choice voting ones in particular because it seems as those rank choice voting we’re not really sure exactly what the effect of that is yet and we’ve seen it in Alaska as you mentioned. We saw it in the New York City mayor’s race, but the notion that some people have that it tends to create more moderate candidates.It seems like the jury is still out on that one. Our audience, of course, as you know, largely legislators and legislative staff. I wonder what sort of ballot measures relating to the legislative institution are appearing on this year’s ballot.
HB: Sure. We’ve got a small handful of ballot measures related to the legislative institution up this year. I will note first that earlier this year, Wisconsin voters rejected 2 ballot measures that had to do with the legislative institution. That was an election the state held back in the summer. And those ballot measures would have prohibited legislative delegation of their appropriation powers. Another one would have required legislative approval of the governor’s allocation of any federal funding coming into the state. Voters rejected both of those ballot measures so no changes to those legislative powers in Wisconsin as of right now.
Looking at this year’s general elections, we have four more states with ballot measures related to the legislature. Arizona and Louisiana both have some measures related to legislative procedure. Arizona has got a ballot measure that has to do with legislative approval for certain agency regulations. It would make it so that some regulations cannot be implemented without legislative approval depending on how much the regs are going to cost the state. And then Louisiana has a couple of ballot measures that have to do with the timing of appropriations bills and extending sessions in order to make sure you can get appropriations passed. The other two states with ballot measures related to the legislative institution are Massachusetts. Question 1 in Massachusetts if passed will authorize the state auditor to audit the legislature. And then Oregon’s measure 115 if passed would authorize the state legislature in Oregon to impeach statewide officials. I just learned from one of my colleagues here at NCSL the other day that Oregon is actually the only state where the legislature doesn’t already have that power. So, it sounds like a bit of a flashy item, but apparently if this passes, it will actually be bringing Oregon into line with the other 49 states.
TM: 25:13
Ed: So, as we wrap up here, Helen, I wonder if there is anything particularly interesting that you will be watching closely for on election day.
HB: Yes. I have a couple of different ballot measures that I think are going to be interesting ones to watch this year. First, Idaho’s proposition 1. This is one of the top-four primaries and implementation of rank choice voting ballot measures. I think this is interesting to watch because Idaho’s legislature just outlawed rank choice voting in 2023 and Idaho is not the only state this year that recently outlawed rank choice voting, but now has a ballot measure that would repeal the prohibition on rank choice voting and implement it. So, I think that is interesting to watch and representative of the movement and back and forth that we are seeing when it comes to rank choice voting in lots of states. So, it will be interesting to see how that measure performs.
Next South Dakota and North Dakota both have ballot measures that would legalize some uses of marijuana. I think these are interesting to watch because both of those states had similar ballot measures up in 2022 and voters rejected them so they are on the ballot again and we will see if those voters feel any differently or still not quite ready to make that jump.
And then lastly, I think the biggest and most interesting ballot measure race to watch in November will be Florida’s Amendment 4. This is Florida’s abortion-related ballot measure. If passed, it would establish a right to abortion in the state’s constitution.The reason I think this is interesting to watch is because in Florida a constitutional amendment that is being passed via ballot measure needs 60% voter approval; not that usual 50% simple majority to pass that we are used to seeing in our elections. I mentioned earlier that ballot measures related to abortion have so far since the Dobbs case always come out in favor of pro-abortion advocates and I think it will be very interesting to see if Florida’s Amendment 4 follows that trend with that more stringent passage requirement.
Ed: Yeah 60%, that’s a pretty high threshold so I think all of us will be interested to see what happens there. Helen, thank you so much for running it down for us and thank you for keeping track of all of this. I don’t think most of us could possibly do that on our own. So, thank you very much and we will see what happens on November 5. Take care.
HB: Thanks so much.
Ed: I’ve been talking with Ben Williams and Helen Brewer from NCSL about the upcoming state legislative elections and statewide ballot measures. Thanks for listening.
You can check out all the podcasts from the National Conference of State Legislatures by searching for NCSL podcasts wherever you get your podcasts. This podcast “Our American States” dives into some of the most challenging public policy issues facing legislators. On “Across the Aisle” host Kelley Griffin tells stories of bipartisanship. Also check out our special series “Building Democracy” on the history of legislatures.
TM: 28:30